| Resumo: |
ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to develop a simulation model to analyse the technical, economic, and financial performance of using different reproductive strategies in dairy herds. Strategies simulated were: artificial insemination (AI) using conventional semen after oestrus detection (AIC), AI using sex-sorted semen after oestrus detection (AIS), timed artificial insemination (TAI) using conventional semen (TAIC), and TAI using sex-sorted semen (TAIS). The total time horizon analysed corresponded to 25 years, divided into 425 periods of 21 days. The model simulates the biological cycle that takes place within the bovine herd, and uses input information (productive parameters, investments, and reproductive program) to calculate output information (animal inventory variance, incomes, costs, and cash flow analysis). Based on the obtained cash flow, the payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return were calculated. The payback for AIC, AIS, TAIC, and TAIS occurred in 26, 27, 23, and 25 periods. The net present value and the internal rate of return per year of the investment for AIC, AIS, TAIC, and TAIS were US$ 557773 and 59.44%; US$ 520469 and 54.76%; US$ 741800 and 70.22%; and US$ 662891 and 63.52%, respectively. The mean culling rate over 25 years for AIC, AIS, TAIC, and TAIS was 43.30%, 64.89%, 21.12%, and 36.40%, respectively. The simulation clearly demonstrated the economic and technical benefits of using TAI in dairy herds. These benefits are greater when TAI is used with conventional semen, despite the large investment in technology that is required. Using this mathematical model, future studies could be conducted when the assessment of the technical and economic viability of new scenarios is required.
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